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Comparing Different Meteorological Ensemble Approaches: Hydrological Predictions for a Flood Episode in Northern Italy : Volume 8, Issue 1 (21/03/2012)

By Davolio, S.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003991074
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 5
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Comparing Different Meteorological Ensemble Approaches: Hydrological Predictions for a Flood Episode in Northern Italy : Volume 8, Issue 1 (21/03/2012)  
Author: Davolio, S.
Volume: Vol. 8, Issue 1
Language: English
Subject: Science, Advances, Science
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Morgillo, A., Diomede, T., Miglietta, M. M., Marsigli, C., Montani, A., & Davolio, S. (2012). Comparing Different Meteorological Ensemble Approaches: Hydrological Predictions for a Flood Episode in Northern Italy : Volume 8, Issue 1 (21/03/2012). Retrieved from

Description: Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, Bologna, Italy. Within the framework of coupled meteorological-hydrological predictions, this study aims at comparing two high-resolution meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range. The two modelling systems have similar characteristics, as almost the same number of members, the model resolution (about 7 km), the driving ECMWF global ensemble prediction system, but are obtained through different methodologies: the former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF), while the latter follows a single-model approach, based on COSMO-LEPS (Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System), the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium.

Precipitation forecasts are evaluated in terms of hydrological response, after coupling the meteorological models with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOPKAPI) to simulate the discharge of the Reno river (Northern Italy), for a severe weather episode.

Although a single case study does not allow for robust and definite conclusions, the comparison among different predictions points out a remarkably better performance of mesoscale model ensemble forecasts compared to global ones. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble outperforms the single model approach.

Comparing different meteorological ensemble approaches: hydrological predictions for a flood episode in Northern Italy

Malguzzi, P., Grossi, G., Buzzi, A., Ranzi, R., and Buizza, R.: The 1966 century flood in Italy: A meteorological and hydrological revisitation, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D24106, doi:10.1029/2006JD007111, 2006.; Montani, A., Cesari, D., Marsigli, C., and Paccagnella, T.: Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: main achievements and open challenges, Tellus A, 63, 605–624, 2011.; Buizza, R.: The value of probabilistic prediction, Atmospheric Sciences Letters, 9, 36–42, 2008.; Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-468+STR, 88, 100 pp. 2005.; Steppeler, J., Doms, G., Schattler, U., Bitzer, H. W., Gassmann, A., Damrath, U., and Gregoric, G.: Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 82, 75–96, 2003.; Todini, E. and Ciarapica, L.: The TOPKAPI model, in: Mathematical models of large watershed hydrology, edited by: Singh, V. P., Frevert and Littleton, D. K., Colorado, USA, Water Resources Publications, 914 pp., 2002.; Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble flood forecasting: a review, J. Hydrol., 375, 613–626, 2009.; Cuo, L., Pagano, T. C., and Wang, Q. J.: A review of quantitative precipitation forecasts and their use in short- to medium-range streamflow forecasting, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 713–728, 2011.


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